ロバートソンNZ財務相 新型コロナ、当初の見込みほど経済的影響深刻ではない

ＮＺのロバートソン財務相は半期財政・経済報告を発表。
新型コロナウイルスの財政及び経済への影響、世界的に見ても厳しい封鎖を科すという決定が報われ、当初恐れられていたほど深刻ではない。
財政赤字及び純債務は3か月前の予想よりもはるかに小さい。
経済成長は急速に回復見込み、
失業率は9月に予想した7.8％ではなく6.9％でピークに達する
来年6月までの平均ＧＤＰ成長率は+1.5％見込み、以前は-0.5％。
21-22年は+2.6％、22-23年は+3.7％の成長が見込まれる。
指標は上向きのリスクをイメしている。
純負債は2023年に対ＧＤＰ比52.6％でピークに達する。以前は2024年に55.3％でのピークが見込まれていた。
この債務予測にはパンデミック回復基金の残り103億ＮＺドルが利用されると仮定している。
New Zealand’s government said the fiscal and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic will be less severe than first feared as its decision to impose one of the world’s strictest lockdowns pays off.
Economic growth will recover more rapidly while budget deficits and net debt will be much lower than expected just three months ago, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said Wednesday in Wellington when presenting the half-year fiscal and economic update. Unemployment will now peak at 6.9% at the end of next year rather than the 7.8% predicted in September.

Says better economic outlook is boosting revenue, leading to smaller budget deficits than projected in the September pre-election update
Sees annual average GDP growth of 1.5% in year ending June 2021; previously saw 0.5% contraction
Sees annual average growth of 2.6% in 2021-22, 3.7% in 2022-23
Now sees lower peak in jobless rate of 6.9% in 4q 2021; previously 7.8%
Treasury says indicators since forecasts finalized in November point to upside risks
Tax revenue in four years ending June 2024 is NZ$16.8b higher than forecast in September, while core government expenses are NZ$6.6b lower
Now projects NZ$21.6b budget deficit in 2020-21; previously NZ$31.7b
Sees deficit narrowing to NZ$4.2b by 2025
Now projects net debt peaking at 52.6% of GDP in 2023; previously 55.3% in 2024
Says net debt includes RBNZ’s alternative monetary policies; excluding those impacts net debt is projected to peak at 45.6% in 2024
Says debt forecast assumes remaining NZ$10.3b of pandemic recovery fund is spent